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link : What Is Next In Venezuela?
What Is Next In Venezuela?
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Shannon K. O'Neil, Council On Foreign Relations: A U.S. Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Be a Disaster
The answer to Venezuela’s crisis is not military intervention. The United States and neighboring countries should instead focus on a widespread diplomatic, financial, and humanitarian response.
Calls for U.S. military intervention in Venezuela are growing, most recently from Senator Marco Rubio. Even Secretary General Luis Almagro of the Organization of American States has said he would not foreclose the military option. Yet as devastating as the regime of President Nicolas Maduro has been for Venezuela and its people, and as compelling the need for change, a military response – especially one led by the U.S. – is unrealistic and would be counterproductive. Instead, Venezuela’s American neighbors and their democratic partners outside the hemisphere will have to find another way.
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WNU Editor: The above author believes that a U.S. military intervention in Venezuela will be a disaster .... a position that I also agree with. A U.S. invasion will succeed, but the cost to rebuild Venezuela will be in the tens of billions, and there is no political will in the U.S. to do that. The above author also believes that the crisis in Venezuela can be minimized if Venezuela’s neighbors take the hard but necessary diplomatic, financial and humanitarian measures needed to achieve economic and political change and an improvement in the region’s collective fortunes. Unfortunately, IMHO this is also not going to work. The regime in Venezuela does not only proclaim that there is no crisis, but has proven itself more than once to be totally uninterested in compromise or enacting necessary economic or political policies that run contrary to its socialist dogma. Feeding it with financial and humanitarian aid is only going to prolong the misery .... the financial aid will go into into the pockets of regime supporters, and the humanitarian aid (which Venezuela has so far refused to accept) will only be used as a tool to suppress dissent. IMHO I see only three outcomes from this crisis. A continuation of the same, with a third of the country's population leaving within the next few years (which is what I think the Maduro regime is hoping for). An internal revolt that will overthrow this awful regime (which I doubt), or Venezuela's neighbors moving forcefully and covertly to support Venezuela's opposition groups to mount a military insurrection. The third option may start happening in 2019.
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