link : U.S. And Its Allies Are Preparing For A Ukrainian Government-In-Exile And An Insurgency That May Last For Years
U.S. And Its Allies Are Preparing For A Ukrainian Government-In-Exile And An Insurgency That May Last For Years
Ukrainian President Zelensky
Washington Post: U.S. and allies quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency
The Ukrainian military has mounted an unexpectedly fierce defense against invading Russian forces, which have been dogged by logistical problems and flagging morale.
But the war is barely two weeks old, and in Washington and European capitals, officials anticipate that the Russian military will reverse its early losses, setting the stage for a long, bloody insurgency. The ways that Western countries would support a Ukrainian resistance are beginning to take shape.
Officials have been reluctant to discuss detailed plans, since they're premised on a Russian military victory that, however likely, hasn't happened yet. But as a first step, Ukraine's allies are planning for how to help establish and support a government-in-exile, which could direct guerrilla operations against Russian occupiers, according to several U.S. and European officials.
The weapons the United States have provided to Ukraine's military, and that continue to flow into the country, would be crucial to the success of an insurgent movement, officials said.
The Biden administration has asked Congress, infused with a rare bipartisan spirit in defense of Ukraine, to take up a $10 billion humanitarian aid and military package that includes funding to replenish the stocks of weapons that have already been sent.
Read more ....
Update #1: US drafts plan for government-in-exile, guerrilla war in Ukraine – reports (RT)
Update #2: U.S. debates how to aid possible Zelenskyy government in exile (NBC)
WNU Editor: I think it is premature to talk about a Ukrainian government in exile. A lot can happen in the coming weeks.
As to what is my take on an insurgency. The experts believe that if the Russian military forces are successful in taking Ukraine, a Ukrainian insurgency will occur and it will last a long time .... A Ukrainian Insurgency Will Be Long and Bloody (Modern War Institute).
That could be the case. It took years for the Soviet Union to end the many insurgencies that erupted in the Caucasus in the 1920s.
But for a modern day insurgency to succeed in Ukraine they will need safe havens in the neighboring states and a steady flow of supplies. Will the neighboring states permit the existence of these safe havens?
My answer would be no. Not because of threats from Putin, but because of the conditions within their own countries.
Europe is facing an energy crisis, a massive refugee crisis made up of millions of women and children, and the very real possibility of a deep economic recession/depression. Their focus will be more on finding a way to end the war, rather than supporting a forever war in the heart of Europe.
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