link : Is The Russia - Ukraine War At A Stalemate?
Is The Russia - Ukraine War At A Stalemate?
Axios: Researchers: War hits stalemate
"The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate after more than three weeks of fighting, with Russia making only marginal gains and increasingly targeting civilians," the N.Y. Times writes (subscription). That was the assessment yesterday from the Institute for the Study of War, a widely respected D.C. research group:
* "Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war," the note says. "That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in
* "Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way."
Read more ....
WNU Editor: The Institute for the Study of War has been one of my go-to places since the start of the invasion.
I think it is too early to say if this war is now a stalemate. A lot can happen in the coming weeks. The weather is also making it difficult for Russian armor columns to advance. It is the muddy season right now, something that the ISW report did not consider in their analysis.
While the Kyiv and northern offensive seems to now be in a holding pattern, the Russian offensive in the south and eastern parts of the country have not been stopped.
I do concur with the report that Ukraine's cities will be difficult to take. It is why I have been worried since the start of the invasion that a scorch-earth order may be given, making the destruction of Mariupol as the template for all the other cities. My gut tells me that Putin has already made that decision.
The ISW report is here, and it is a must read .... Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19 (ISW).
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