link : New U.S. Intelligence Assessment Says Afghan Government Could Collapse Six Months After U.S. Withdrawal
New U.S. Intelligence Assessment Says Afghan Government Could Collapse Six Months After U.S. Withdrawal
Militiamen joined a gathering in Kabul on Wednesday to declare their support for Afghan security forces in fighting the Taliban. Photo: Reuters
Wall Street Journal: Afghan Government Could Collapse Six Months After U.S. Withdrawal, New Intelligence Assessment Says
Taliban advances prompt agencies to revise outlook for how long Kabul can hold out
KABUL—The U.S. intelligence community concluded last week that the government of Afghanistan could collapse as soon as six months after the American military withdrawal from the country is completed, according to officials with knowledge of the new assessment.
American intelligence agencies revised their previously more optimistic estimates as the Taliban swept through northern Afghanistan last week, seizing dozens of districts and surrounding major cities.
Afghan security forces frequently surrendered without a fight, leaving their Humvees and other American-supplied equipment to the insurgents.
The new assessment of the overall U.S. intelligence community, which hasn’t been previously reported, has now aligned more closely with the analysis that had been generated by the U.S. military.
The military has already withdrawn more than half of its 3,500 troops and its equipment, with the rest due to be out by Sept. 11.
On Wednesday, Taliban fighters were battling government troops inside the northern city of Kunduz after occupying the main border crossing with Tajikistan the previous day and reaching the outskirts of northern Afghanistan’s main hub, Mazar-e-Sharif.
Tajikistan’s border service said 134 Afghan troops at the crossing were granted refuge while some 100 others were killed or captured by the Taliban.
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WNU Editor: Even the UN is issuing the same warnings .... Time running out to prevent ‘worst case scenario’ arising in Afghanistan (UN News).
What's my take.
If current trends continue, Kabul will fall in the spring/summer of next year. The geopolitical consequences of such a defeat will be enormous, and the refugee crisis it will spawn will impact all of central Asia and beyond. Politically .... the Biden administration will be blamed for this disaster, and the Democrats will be paying a severe price in the midterm elections next year.
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