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link : Will America's National Security Hawks Lead The U.S. Into A War Against Iran?
Will America's National Security Hawks Lead The U.S. Into A War Against Iran?
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Alexander Drago / Reuters
David Corn & Matt Cohen. Mother Jones: With a War Against Iran Brewing, Don’t Listen to the Hawks Who Lied Us Into Iraq
Shortly after the news broke that a US airstrike in Baghdad ordered by President Donald Trump had killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s Quds Force, Ari Fleischer went on Fox News and proclaimed, “I think it is entirely possible that this is going to be a catalyst inside Iran where the people celebrate this killing of Soleimani.”
Here we go again.
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WNU Editor: US hawks are not in the driver's seat in this crisis, even though they are applauding the demise of Soleimani while issuing calls to put more pressure on Iran. The ball has always been in Iran's court, and it is still there. What Iran will do in the coming days/weeks/months will determine how much this crisis will escalate. So here is my prediction. For now they will do nothing. Maybe a terror or military strike here or there, some actions in the Straits of Hormuz, but a major escalation is not going to happen. In fact, I believe they are in shocked with what has happened. After all, if someone like Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani can be killed, then no one is really safe. With hindsight I have to say that Tehran made a major strategic and tactical mistake when they green-lighted another rocket attack on a US base that killed a US contractor and wounded scores of American soldiers last week. They underestimated the U.S. response, and for that they lost a major militia HQ, equipment, and 25 fighters. They also did not take seriously President Trump's threat that the US would respond even more forcefully if an attack should be repeated in the future. To put it bluntly, President Trump drew a red line. But instead of heeding it an attack was organized and launched against the US embassy in Baghdad. The fact that Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani showed up a day later tells me that he wanted to see for himself what had happened, and to make plans on what to do next. I have mentioned more than once on this blog that when Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani shows up, mayhem and destruction soon follow. I am sure his arrival in Baghdad on Thursday telegraphed to Washington that something big was going to happen, and the final decision to take him out was then made when the opportunity arrived. So what will happen next? Tomorrow the Iraqi parliament is going to meet, and they are going to pass a motion that all US forces should leave Iraq. I personally hope that President Trump will take that as an opportunity to leave Iraq, and do so promptly. The hawks in Washington are going to scream at President Trump that should do everything in his power to stay, but enough is enough. Iraq was a mess before, it is a mess today, and it will be a mess tomorrow. This is not our fight.
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