link : Iran's 'catastrophic mistake': Speculation, pressure, then admission
Iran's 'catastrophic mistake': Speculation, pressure, then admission
When a Boeing passenger jet crashed in Iran early on January 8, speculation immediately swirled that the only plausible explanation was that it had been shot down by Iran.
The crash of the Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) flight came hours after Tehran had launched a barrage of missiles at bases housing American troops in Iraq, retaliating for the killing of commander Qasem Soleimani in a US strike.
Immediately, theories multiplied arguing that Tehran's air defence system, on high alert for possible US retaliation, may have been triggered by accident.
Western leaders cited intelligence pointing to an accidental strike by Iran. Verified video images later emerged showing a missile striking a plane.
From Wednesday to Friday, Iranian officials repeatedly insisted that the plane had not been shot down. Early on Saturday however, the Islamic republic admitted that the plane had been hit by a short-range missile in what President Hassan Rouhani described as a "catastrophic mistake".
- What happened on January 8? -
The Boeing 737-800NG for UIA's flight PS752 between Tehran and Kiev took off from Imam Khomeini International Airport at 6:12 am local time.
Although there was no distress message from the pilot, the plane had begun to turn back for the airport before crashing at 6:18 am, said the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization. The aircraft came down near Sabashahr on the outskirts of Tehran.
There were 10 departures from Tehran airport that day before flight PS752, according to the Flight Radar 24 monitoring site. That raised questions as to why air traffic had not been halted given the situation.
All 176 people on board the flight PS752 -- mainly Iranians and Canadians, including dual nationals, but also Ukrainians, Afghans, Britons and Swedes -- were killed.
- How did pressure grow? -
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was the first major leader to publicly state Iran could be to blame. He said Canada had intelligence from multiple sources "including our allies and our own intelligence" that indicated "the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile."
"This may well have been unintentional," Trudeau added.
His language was echoed by other Western leaders including Dutch Premier Mark Rutte, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
US President Donald Trump said he had "suspicions" as "somebody could have made a mistake", and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo then said the United States believed it was "likely" that an Iranian missile downed the airliner.
The New York Times also said it had verified a video appearing to show a missile hitting a plane at night above the Tehran suburb of Parand, west of the airport.
- What did Iran initially say? -
For three days, Iranian officials refused to countenance any suggestion that one of its missiles had brought down the plane.
The country's civil aviation chief Ali Abedzadeh said that one "thing is for certain, this airplane was not hit by a missile", arguing that it would have exploded immediately if hit by a missile.
Experts questioned that claim, arguing that such missiles explode before coming into contact with the target.
- What does Iran now admit? -
In an announcement early Saturday that took many experts by surprise, Iran admitted it had "unintentionally" shot down the jet after a missile operator mistook the plane for a cruise missile.
Tehran said its systems had been on high alert for American retaliation in the hours after the Iranian strikes on bases housing US troops in Iran.
"He had 10 seconds to decide," the aerospace commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh said of the operator, who he insisted had "acted alone".
"He could have decided to strike or not to strike and under such circumstances he took the wrong decision."
Rouhani called it an "unforgivable mistake", vowed that compensation would be paid to the families while those responsible would be prosecuted.
- What kind of missile was used? -
Unverified images posted on social media show the remains of a Russian-made Tor M-1 missile but Tehran has yet to give details on the kind of weaponry used.
Tehran received 29 such air defence systems from Moscow under a $700 million contract signed in 2005, a deal that caused considerable unease in the West.
The Bellingcat open-source analytics website has said the origin of the images is yet to be determined, and the people who captured the images have not come forward.
- What does Ukraine want now? -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, initially wary of blaming Tehran, has toughened his line since Tehran's admission.
After Zelensky spoke to Rouhani later Saturday, the Ukrainian presidency said that Zelensky asked Tehran to allow the bodies of the 11 Ukrainian victims to be repatriated "by January 19".
He added that Ukrainian diplomats had produced a list of steps to be taken to "resolve the compensation issue".
Despite the three days of denial from Tehran, some have compared its reaction favourably to that from Moscow over the crash of the Malaysia Airlines flight shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014.
Although the Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team says a Russian-made BUK missile fired by pro-Russian separatists was to blame, Russia still denies any involvement.
In the words of a general: how Iran downed airliner
Tehran (AFP) Jan 11, 2020 - The aerospace commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards on Saturday accepted full responsibility for the shooting down of a Ukrainian passenger jet.
In remarks aired on state television, Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh said the missile operator who fired on the plane did so independently because of communications "jamming".
It came as Iran acknowledged the Boeing 737 had been shot down, after denying for days Western claims that it was likely to have been brought down by a missile.
Here are the main excerpts of his 12-minute explanation:
- '10 seconds to decide' -
- Hajizadeh said he first heard of "the heartbreaking incident" while in the west of the country after Iran fired missiles at US troops hosted at Iraqi bases.
- "I take full responsibility and I will obey whatever decision is taken. I would prefer to die rather than witness such an incident."
- "On the night of the incident, at around sunset, the alert level was at war status, the highest level of readiness."
- "At various stages, it was reported... that cruise missiles had been fired towards the country, and at one or two stages it was reiterated again that these (missiles) were on the way, be ready."
- "You see, the systems are at the highest level of readiness. You only need to press the button."
- "Given the information provided to the (missile) operator that it was a war situation and cruise missiles had been fired, this person identified this as a (missile)."
- "He was obliged to make contact and get verification. The operator's mistake was this point. But apparently, his communications system had some disruptions. Now either the 'jamming' system was the cause or the network was busy or whatever, he couldn't get in touch."
- "He had 10 seconds to decide... Unfortunately under these circumstances, he made this bad decision, the missile was fired and the plane was hit and then... it turned and the spot that it crashed at was here," he said, pointing to a map.
- 'All-out conflict'-
- Hajizadeh defended the Iran Civil Aviation Organisation after it rebuffed Western claims the plane carrying 176 people had been shot down.
- "First of all, I must say that they were acting in accordance with their own knowledge (of the situation). They were not aware of this incident."
- "The armed forces had formed a team to investigate the incident before I reached Tehran and they put this team... in complete isolation. We were not allowed to say anything to anyone. We had provided the information but the investigation needed to be carried out. The reason it took several days before this was announced to the media wasn't that some had wanted to hide the issue, but that this was the procedure and the (armed forces) had to investigate it."
- "They investigated and on Friday morning almost all information had been gathered and it was clear what the incident was... some were at fault in this issue and naturally afterwards the (armed forces) made it public."
- "If there was any mistake, one of our (personnel) had made a mistake and as he was under our command the responsibility is with us. We must be answerable."
- The civil aviation organisation, he said, had denied the plane had been hit by a missile based on its experience outside the military.
- Its assessment had also been "based on the fact that if a missile hit a plane, it should explode in the air" and that "it turned and wanted to land".
- "It was a short-range missile that exploded next to the plane. That's why the plane was able" to continue flying for a while. "It exploded when it hit the ground."
- "Neither the armed forces, nor the Guards intended to hide anything. We are saddened by this incident... We too have lost our dear ones. We are sorry."
- "This is the cost of America's evilness, tensions and actions in the region. That night we were prepared for an all-out conflict. I was in the west of the country and at any moment I considered it likely... as there were many planes flying in the region."
- "We considered the full possibility of cruise (missiles) being fired or planes entering" Iran's airspace.
- "We had prepared ourselves for an all-out conflict. Unfortunately, due to a hasty decision-making by one person this big catastrophe happened."
- Why were flights not cancelled? -
- The aerospace commander also explained why flights were not cancelled.
- "I don't want to accuse anyone here... Naturally those who are responsible will investigate this issue and make these things clear."
- "In my view, when the situation is a war situation, this should have been done by the relevant authorities. But somehow this didn't happen."
- "The civil aviation organisation is not at fault. They were not asked" to stop flights.
- "This goes back to the armed forces. This mistake and problem is the armed forces'. The government, the airport company, have no fault and are not to be blamed."
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