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Title : The Current Trade War Is Being Viewed By The Chinese Government As A Threat To It's Survival
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The Current Trade War Is Being Viewed By The Chinese Government As A Threat To It's Survival

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China's President Xi Jinping arrives for the third plenary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, March 12, 2017. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu

James Rickards, Daily Reckoning: “Mandate of Heaven” in Jeopardy

U.S. policy through the Bush and Obama administrations was to soft-pedal questionable Chinese trade practices, pirating technology and theft of intellectual property in return for cheap manufactured goods and China’s willingness to finance trillions of dollars of U.S. government debt.

Now Trump has changed the rules of the game. He’s said lost jobs in the U.S. are not worth the cheap goods and cheap financing. He bet that China had no alternative but to keep producing those goods and keep buying our debt, even if the U.S. imposes tariffs to help create manufacturing jobs here.

President Trump and President Xi had been on a collision course involving issues of trade, tariffs, and currency manipulation, which are coming to a head.

It’s important to understand that China’s economy is not just about providing jobs, goods and services. It is about regime survival for a Chinese Communist Party that faces an existential crisis if it fails to deliver. It is an illegitimate regime that will remain in power only so long as it provides jobs and a rising living standard for the Chinese people. The overriding imperative of the Chinese leadership is to avoid societal unrest.

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WNU Editor: The Chinese have always viewed having $500 billion trade deficits with the U.S. and restrictions on U.S. exports as a given, and have formulated and implemented their economic policies to insure the additional employment of 20,000,000 new workers each year based on this expectation. The trade war has put all of this into jeopardy, and in turn has resulted in concerns that the promise that Beijing has made to its citizens will not be reached. In response the Chinese are now playing the waiting game, in the hope that President Trump will be defeated in 2020, and a new U.S. President will return to the status quo. I do not think this is going to happen, but this is the policy that Beijing has decided to follow. As to concerns that if there is an economic slowdown it will translate into a threat to the Chinese government. I think this fear is overblown. But the problem is that President Xi and his entourage believe that it will, and they are in the drivers seat right.

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