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link : U.S. And Mexico Moving To Sign A New NAFTA Deal Without Canada
U.S. And Mexico Moving To Sign A New NAFTA Deal Without Canada
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AFP: US, Mexico ready to sign new NAFTA without Canada: US official
The United States and Mexico could move ahead without Canada in a new version of the North American Free Trade Agreement, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said Tuesday, according to media reports.
Momentum appeared to have stalled last week in efforts to bridge differences between Washington and Ottawa in negotiations to rewrite NAFTA, which began last year.
Washington and Mexico City last month announced agreement on a new trade pact, but a separate track of intensive talks with Canada have so far failed to produce results.
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WNU Editor: Canada miscalculated the impact that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador would have on the NAFTA negotiations after he had won the Mexican Presidential election. President-elect Obrador wanted a quick deal so that he could focus on Mexico's domestic issues instead of arguing with President Trump .... Canada thought the opposite, that he would continue the strategy of the previous Mexican government to work with Canada in negotiating with the U.S.. Unfortunately for Canada .... the Mexicans decided to cut a quick deal with President Trump, thereby putting Canada in the poor negotiating position that they find themselves in today. The hope now in Ottawa is that the U.S. Congress will block this U.S. - Mexico bilateral trade agreement, and tell the White House to negotiate with both Mexico and Canada together. But I do not see this happening. Congress is going to green-light this U.S. - Mexico agreement, and Canada will either need to compromise or walk away. My sources tell me that Canada is going to walk away, and the Liberal government under Prime Minister Trudeau will use this failure to strike a deal with President Trump as an issue in next year's federal election. I think this is a mistake. The White House will start to impose tariffs, and in conjunction with other measures it will seriously damage investor confidence in the Canadian economy and Canadian exports. And going to the electorate saying that not having a deal is better than having a bad deal is not going to resonate to those who are being hurt. Bottom line .... the U.S. economy will have a hit, but in Canada the impact will be far more serous and longer lasting.
Update: This analysis is spot on .... How Trump split Mexico and Canada in NAFTA talks (Dave Graham, Reuters).
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