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Title : Afghanistan may be a new theatre of US-Russia rivalry
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Afghanistan may be a new theatre of US-Russia rivalry

HIGHLIGHTS

• US will not attend meeting to discuss Daesh and Taliban, which will be hosted by Russia
• The main participants, China, Iran, Pakistan and Russia, are openly looking for a “peace deal” in Afghanistan
• Any Moscow-Taliban deal will put Pakistan in the driver’s seat, which will be a threat to India

NEW DELHI: As HR McMaster, US national security adviser, arrives in Kabul on the first leg of his visit to the region, Russia is maintaining its activist role, hosting the third meeting of regional countries on Daesh and Taliban in Moscow on Friday.
The US has refused to attend the meeting, for which it has been invited for the first time. The sharpened geo-political moves have raised the spectre in India that Afghanistan is the new theater for US-Russia rivalry and, if left unchecked, could become the next Syria on India’s doorstep.

India will be at the meeting, represented by joint secretary of the MEA, Deepak Mittal. India and Afghanistan will find themselves in a lonely corner, and the main participants, China, Iran, Pakistan and Russia, are openly looking for a “peace deal” in Afghanistan, which would accommodate Taliban in some form.

Russia, which has inserted itself in the Afghanistan situation, much like it did in Syria, ostensibly wants to keep Daesh/ Islamic State out of Afghanistan, and blames the US for not doing enough against IS.

But the US believes the real reason is to use the Taliban to keep the US out of Afghanistan. Russia regards Afghanistan as being within its sphere of influence, and therefore, this third meeting will see the presence of all the Central Asian states – it’s a signal to China, too, that despite China being a growing power, the south-central Asian region will see Russia as the dominant power.

The positive aspect of the Russia move is that Moscow, in its effort at keeping

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this as a regional initiative, has involved all of Afghanistan’s neighbours.

India is somewhat understanding of Russia’s desire to expand its sphere of influence in Afghanistan having been kept out of it for some time. Moscow is worried that an expansionist US and equally expansionist China could trample all over Russia’s strategic backyard.

India will spend this weekend on hectic diplomatic moves to curb Moscow’s enthusiasm on striking a deal with the Taliban, which would put Pakistan in the driver’s seat.

Simultaneously, Ajit Doval, NSA would be having his first meeting with McMaster on the Indian position and interests in Afghanistan, which do not include a flexible accommodation of the Taliban except under certain conditions. The Trump administration is conducting its own review of Washington’s Af-Pak policy. McMaster’s meetings in Islamabad and New Delhi will help to firm up Trump’s approach.

The US commander in Afghanistan told the Senate that they had taken out a number of Daesh militants and even their leader in Afghanistan, so Daesh wasn’t the main problem there, it was still the Taliban.
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He had also expressed concern about the new axis of Pakistan-China-Russia-Iran taking the Afghan situation in a very different direction. Afghan news media continue to report the presence of Russian “advisers” who accompany Taliban, while the Russian embassy has vehemently denied these reports.

The US continues to have the biggest security footprint in Afghanistan and it will not let it go. The next steps therefore depend on two things, first, the outcome of the US review and second, the response of the Ashraf Ghani government to the “recommendations” of the Moscow-led group.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:-TNN

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